Kathmandu, June 20 – As tensions between Israel and Iran escalate, the world watches anxiously to see whether the United States will become an active participant in the conflict. This question — whether America will go to war — is now one of the most pressing in international politics.
When asked on Wednesday whether the U.S. would enter the conflict, President Donald Trump gave a noncommittal response: “I might join the war. I might not.”
In light of ongoing developments, BBC correspondents and analysts have answered nine of the most frequently asked and searched questions regarding the crisis:
1. Why is Israel bombing Iran now?
According to BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner, Israel claims it had no choice. It believes Iran has been accelerating its nuclear weapons program and that diplomatic talks have failed.
Israel views Iran as an existential threat and argues that a nuclear-armed Iran would act on past threats to destroy Israel.
While Israel insists Iran is nearing nuclear capability, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and even past U.S. intelligence reports have not confirmed such immediate risks.
2. Where are Iranian civilians going?
BBC Middle East correspondent Nafiseh Kohnavard reports that Israel has advised evacuation in some parts of Tehran, but most of those areas are densely populated.
Heavy traffic has been observed heading north from the capital, perceived as a safer region, although even these areas have been targeted.
The Iranian government has opened metro stations 24/7 for shelter, but evacuating millions from Tehran remains nearly impossible.
3. If the U.S. joins the war, will Iran strike American bases?
Security analyst Mikey Kay warns that if the U.S. intervenes, there is a serious risk of retaliation.
With 40,000 to 50,000 U.S. troops stationed across 19 bases in the Middle East — including key naval facilities in Bahrain and Cyprus — Iran could attempt attacks depending on the level of U.S. engagement.
4. Will Iran’s proxy forces support it in the conflict?
Frank Gardner believes it’s unlikely Iran’s proxies will provide significant support right now.
Since the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023, Israel has systematically weakened Iran’s regional influence — destroying Hamas in Gaza and striking Hezbollah arms depots in Lebanon.
Syria is no longer a reliable ally, and Yemen’s Houthis are too disorganized to coordinate effectively.
5. How much support do Iran’s leaders have?
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei holds more power than Iran’s president and commands the military.
But public support for him is deeply divided. Massive protests erupted just two years ago, particularly among women demanding rights and freedoms.
Still, Khamenei retains significant backing from the armed forces and the ruling elite.
6. What happens if Iran’s regime falls?
There’s no clear answer. Iran’s opposition is fragmented.
Exiled former crown prince Reza Pahlavi has some support, but also strong domestic opposition from reformists who oppose a return to monarchy.
A viable replacement for the current regime is uncertain, raising questions about who would lead a post-Khamenei Iran.
7. Where is Fordow and why is it important?
Fordow is located about 200 kilometers south of Tehran and is one of Iran’s main uranium enrichment facilities.
Built deep under a mountain for protection, it plays a crucial role in Iran’s nuclear program.
Israel has reportedly targeted Fordow’s air defenses in recent attacks, attempting to weaken its protection.
8. How close is Iran to making a nuclear bomb?
Only Iran’s top nuclear scientists, intelligence officials, and Khamenei himself likely know the real answer.
However, the IAEA recently revealed that Iran violated its nuclear obligations for the first time in nearly 20 years.
Iran has reportedly stockpiled 400 kg of uranium enriched up to 60% — far above the level needed for civilian use.
While Israeli intelligence believes Iran is close to weaponizing, U.S. intelligence in March stated that Iran has enough material but is not yet building a bomb.
Iran maintains that its nuclear program is purely peaceful.
9. Does Israel have nuclear weapons?
According to Mikey Kay, Israel is believed to possess around 90 nuclear warheads, though the exact number is unknown.
Israel has never officially confirmed or denied its nuclear arsenal and is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
It is believed to have all three components necessary for nuclear warfare: weapons-grade uranium, bomb-making capability, and delivery systems.
As the world holds its breath, the possibility of full-scale regional war involving global powers grows ever more real. The coming days will be critical in shaping the direction of this escalating conflict.
